KOLD Climate Community Blog

LABOR DAY TRAVEL

It's a big travel weekend!  AAA says 34.6 million people will be going out of town for the three day holiday weekend.  And 29 million of those will be taking their cars!  Now that's traffic!

So here is the forecast for a few the places you may be heading to. 

Rocky Point will be hot!  Make sure you pack some jugs of water just in case your car overheats or breaks down in the desert.  Otherwise enjoy the water!  Afternoon highs will be near 100 degrees with morning lows in the mid-80s.  Water temperatures are in the 80s.  Things should remain quiet but with tropical moisture not that far south some clouds and maybe even a spotty shower or two may creep into northwest Mexico. The best chance of that happening is on Monday, when most of you will be heading back home. 

San Carlos, a popular dive destination, will be a little cooler with afternoon highs in the mid-90s and lows in the mid-80s.  There will be a few more clouds in the skies because San Carlos is that much closer to an area of tropical moisture lingering south of Cabo and west of Puerto Vallarta.  Spotty showers are possible in the afternoon but the biggest surge of tropical moisture will hold off until just after Labor Day.

If you are headed for the west coast, Los Angeles will be on the warm side for the west coast with highs near 90 Saturday, cooling to the upper 80s through Labor Day.  Lows will dip into the upper 60s.  Water temperatures are around 70 degrees. San Diego will be a little cooler with highs in the low 80s for the weekend.  Morning lows will hover around 70 degrees with similar temperatures seen in the water.

Many of you will be flocking to the see one of our greatest natural treasures...the Grand Canyon.  Highs during the day will be comfortable, in the mid 80s.  Lows will be a bit on the chilly side if you are used to the southern Arizona heat.  Morning temperatures will be in the mid-50s.  You may want to take the rain jacket. There is a slight chance for afternoon storms and you don't want to be caught in a downpour unprepared! 

Show Low in the White Mountains will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper 50s for the weekend.  If you are headed to higher elevations expect cooler temperatures by up to 10 degrees.  Scattered storms are possible all weekend.  So make sure you have some waterproof or quick drying clothing if you are camping.  Nothing like sitting in the tent, soaking wet, on a cool mountain night! 

If you are heading north to Provo, Utah for the big game on Saturday, the weather will even be a little hot for that area.  At kick-off at 3:30 pm on Saturday Provo time (2:30 Tucson time) temperatures will be in the mid 90s.  That's the same story for the rest of the holiday weekend.  Mornings lows will be near 70.  Enjoy the game and go Wildcats! 

Now if you would like a forecast for a place not on our list just leave a comment below or e-mail me.  I'll try to get that to you before 9am Friday morning. 

And if you want to check the latest flight delays, just check out FAA Flight Delay Information.

Have a good day! And stay safe this holiday weekend. - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

Watching the Tropics

With the Sonoran Desert as green as it gets, we still have a chance for more thunderstorms all the way into the holiday weekend, AND BEYOND!  Here is a satellite showing the location of Tropical Storm Gil, just south of Cabo.

This position is almost perfect for sending surges of moisture up the Gulf of California, increasing our humidity and corresponding storm chances. 

So, although the forecast is for Gil to move west into the Pacific, we have to watch for its residual moisture moving northward through the Gulf of California.

In addition, plenty of tropical moisture exists off the southern coast of Mexico.  This moisture will move northwest toward the Gulf of California over the weekend.

This northwest movement, as shown in this computer model "spaghetti" plot (courtesy weatherunderground.com), will once again give us a shot at more moisture lingering into early September.

Happy Weather!

Chuck George 

Phoenix Matches Heat Record

The Sky Islands are pretty much the only areas where rain will fall for a few days.  High pressure has taken over much of Arizona. That is squashing our rain chances until we get into the weekend.  And that also means Mother Nature is turning up the heat!

In fact on Tuesday, Phoenix matched a heat record.  So far this summer they have experienced 28 days of 110 degrees or higher in the afternoon.  That matches the record first set in 1979 and again in 2002.  The average number of 110 or higher days in a summer is only 10 days!  So this is shaping up to be one of the hottest, if not the hottest, summer on record. Setting a new record is likely because the heat will stick around for another couple of days before temperatures start to moderate into the weekend. 

Stay cool! - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

Mars E-mail Hoax Fools Many Tucsonans

Each August, people e-mail and call us to ask about the incredible show Mars will be putting on.  It all stems from this e-mail that circulates yearly:

"Two moons on 27 August
*27th Aug the Whole World is waiting for...*
Planet Mars will be the brightest in the night sky starting August.
It will look as large as the full moon to the naked eye. This will
cultivate on Aug. 27 when Mars comes within 34.65M miles of earth. Be
sure to watch the sky on Aug. 27 12:30 am. It will look like the earth
has 2 moons. The next time Mars may come this close is in 2287.
Share this with your friends as NO ONE ALIVE TODAY will ever see it
again."

This e-mail is a hoax!  Mars did make a close approach to Earth on August 27, 2003, its closest approach in 60,000 years!  But, as the cliche goes, that was then and this is now.  So, when you get this e-mail, you might consider responding to the friend who sent it to you with the link to this story.

Thanks, and Happy Stargazing!- First Alert Meteorologist Chuck George

Also check out what NASA has to say here.

Total Lunar Eclispe 2:52 to 4:22 AM Tuesday August 28th

A total Lunar Eclipse will begin at 2:52 am and last to 4:22 am on Tuesday morning.  Yes, it's early!  But it is worth a look so set the alarm if you are so motivated. 

As the Earth passes between the sun and the moon, blocking the suns rays reflecting off the moon, the moon will turn a red color.  This is a shot of the moon during an eclipse in October of 2004.  The eclipse begins at 12:54 am but the total eclipse does not occur until 2:52 am.  It takes about 90 mintues for the moon to travel through the Earth's shadow.  The end of the total eclipse is at 4:22 am.  So if you need the sleep but still want to check out this amazing site...set the alarm for around 3am.  Take a peak and a picture.  Better yet...send those photos to us through our Viewer Views link. 

For more information on this and other eclipses, just check out the NASA Eclipse Home Page.  They even have a live webcast or the eclipse. 

Have a good day! - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

WEATHER REPORTS FRIDAY AUGUST 24

Feeling a little tropical out there today.  And that means the storms are popping!  Heavy downpours are the greatest danger but strong, damaging winds and small hail will also accompany some storms.  Tell us what is going on in your area.  We want to know how much rain fell, what washes are running, and where there is storm damage.  Just leave us a comment! Of course we always want your photos.  Check out Viewer Views.  That link will tell you how to get photos and we update the slide show daily. 

Thanks for logging on. - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

Washes Running This Weekend

This is a great Viewer View of lightning over the Chiracahua Mountains sent in by Ed Erbeck Jr.  And this weekend we'll be seeing a lot more of storms like this cross southern Arizona. 

Features in the atmosphere are setting up just right to draw in tropical moisture left over from Hurricane Dean.  This surge takes our rain chances up quite a bit over the weekend.  Scattered storms are expected with heavy downpours.  Be careful during your weekend travels.  Although you may not get the rain right your home, washes could be running near you as rain drains from higher elevations. 

After the weekend, the deepest moisture moves out and high pressure builds back in right over the southwest. This will cut our storm chances and bring those hot temperatures back into southern Arizona.  So although it may not be the best pool weekend, we need the rain and it is welcome by most.  I know my lemon tree is looking a little droopy so I hope my house sees a decent downpour or two. 

Have a good weekend. - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

Phoenix Approaches Heat Record!

So far Phoenix has had highs of 110 degrees or higher for 27 days this summer!  The record is 28, which was first set in 1979 and matched in 2002.  The city was close to matching that record on Wednesday, but the thermometer topped out at 109.  Today the forecasted high is 109 as well, but with that being so close to the needed temperature, conceivably the record could be matched today.  Plus...there is still the rest of August and September to see those hot, hot temperatures. 

Not matter what...it's hot in Phoenix and in southern Arizona.  There is some relief on the way.  The weather patterns are shifting to allow another surge of tropical moisture to move in over the weekend.  That moisture is the leftovers of Hurricane Dean.  Rain chances come up for the weekend and temperatures go down.  Who sees the heaviest rain still remains to be seen. Right now it looks like the best surge will be just to the west of our area.  But the slightest shift in the factors steering this moisture, could bring it right into southern Arizona. That means instead of scattered storms we could get widespread flooding soaker's. So be prepared for the storms this weekend. You may not see any rain but be prepared just in case we do get hit hard!

Have a good day. - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

Monsoon Rain...So Far So Good

We are changing out our poll question!  So here are the results so far of this last one. 

The question was "How much rain will be get during the monsoon?"

The choices for the answer were 0" to 4", 4.01" to 8", 8.01" to 12", and 12.01" to 15". 

Almost 50% of you voted for 4.01" to 8", which is a safe bet since the average monsoon rain total falls in this category.  The National Weather Service measures monsoon rainfall from June 15th through September 30th at the Tucson International Airport.  Although the monsoon officially starts after three consecutive days of an average 54 degree dew point or higher, the NWS keeps measures the rainfall between set dates to make record keeping easier.  On average we get 6.06" of rain during this period. 

This year we are little above that number already and we still have over a month to go!  As of today, our rainfall total is 6.08".  Most of that rain fell in July when TIA picked up 5.22"!  August has been a little more spotty but the mountains have benefited from all that July rain.  You really notice how green they are right now.  This is the second year in a row we will end the monsoon above average for rainfall.  In 2006 we received 10.20" of rain.  It was the 6th wettest monsoon on record.  The wettest was in 1964 with 13.84" of rain.

Now, I think it's a good bet to say we will see more rain at TIA to add to the official total.  Whether we make it into the record books remains to be seen.  This weekend, a few soaker's may bring the total up significantly.  As Hurricane Dean dies out over central Mexico, we will see some of the moisture heading our way.  The models are in agreement that we get this tropical surge but they are not in agreement as to exactly who will see the greatest affects.  It may be us...it may be western NM or even western AZ. So right now we are just keeping an eye on things south as Hurricane Dean moves onshore today.  Just be prepared for some flooding weekend rains.  Personally I'm hoping we'll just get some beneficial moderate rainfall and not a deluge! 

Stay safe during the storms! - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

Useful Links...Radar, Models, Satellite

Here are some useful links if you want to look up any forecast models, please comment if you have other useful sites, or if you would like to know where to find some specific information...

Surface Observations and Upper Air Soundings

National Weather Service - Tucson

Weather Underground

Satellite Images:

• NASA GOES website
• NASA GOES neat archive images
• NAVY Satellite Images

Radar

• National Weather Service Radar (National)
• National Weather Service Radar (Local)

Model Data

• NCEP Loops (GFS & NAM)
• San Jose State University Weather Page
• U of A Weather Model Page
• Unisys weather page

Have fun looking at some of these sites! There will be more on the way!

-First Alert Meteorologist Aaron Pickering