KOLD Climate Community Blog

Heavy Rain & Snow Threat

We picked up quite a bit of rain in the Catalina and Rincon Mountains Thursday.  As of 5 am Friday morning, in just 24 hours Mt. Lemmon picked up 1.71" of rain!  Just a little less fell farther down the mountain.  And into the Rincon Mountains 1.81" of rain fell in 24 hours.  Even Tucson International Airport picked up 0.13" of rain.  It doesn't sound like much but keep in mind that the last measurable rainfall at the airport, our official measuring station in Tucson, was October 1st!  And that was only 0.02".  Today much of Arizona will get even more rain, with significant amounts in some places.

At lunchtime the rain is moving out of the nothern Gulf of California into southern Arizona.  The coverage will become widespread as we head through the afternoon and evening.  This push of rain tonight and into Saturday morning is the one the First Alert Weather Team has been talking about for about a week now!  This soaking is just what we need.  As of Thursday, we are 2.76" below the average rainfall. 

There will heavy showers embedded in a widespread area of moderate rainfall.  There is the possiblity of hearing some rumbles of thunder but damaging storms are not expected.  Because this is a tropical air mass, there is a lot of moisture to work with.  From central and eastern Pima and Santa Cruz county, strecthing north into Pinal, Graham, Greenlee counties, and the White Moutains, 1" to 2" of rain could fall in the next 24 hours.  Higher amounts are possible in the moutains, where the change in elevation helps wring out even more moisture than the valley floors.  Some ridges could see 3 or more inches of rain.  This is espeically a threat along the Mogollan Rim.  The showers will move from the southwest to the northeast. 

This is our first big rain event in almost 4 months!  So there are things to keep in mind that we may have forgotten since the summer monsoon rains.  Washes, creeks, and streams will be running high in some areas through the weekend.  Street flooding is expected in the normal spots.  With so much moisture in the air and on the ground, we will also see patchy fog, especially in mountain range valleys.  Just like this picture of the Catalina Mountains on Thursday afternoon.  Viewer Gordon Caldwell sent this photo to the First Alert Weather Team.  The fog could limit early morning visibility for travelers both Saturday and Sunday.  The winds will also be gusty on Saturday morning and breezy in the afternoon as the storm system bringing all this rain and snow moves to the northeast. 

There is a Winter Storm Watch in effect from Friday night into Saturday morning for Sky Islands above 7000'.  Keep in mind, the tallest mountain in the Tucson range is about 5000'.  And in the Catalinas, Summerhaven is at about 9100'.  The rain will change over to snow tonight and 4" to 10" are possible with even more piling up on south facing slopes.  If the snow levels come down just a bit more, even more snow will cover the mountain tops on Saturday morning.  The winds will be gusting and that means blowing snow will limit visibility for those traveling to and from the higher elevations.  As the storm system pulls to the northeast on Saturday, the snow threat ends for most of southern Arizona but the threat for more snow will linger in the White Mountains as a second pulse of energy moves in from the northeast and moves through the northern part of the state. 

The snow and rain will end from southwest to northeast during the day Saturday with the clouds breaking up Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Sunday will be a quiet, seasonable day.  At least one weekend day will be dry! 

As the storm moves through take photos and send them to us!  As we monitor the rain and snow on First Alert Doppler, you are our eyes outside.  Check out our Viewer Views page.  There, you can learn how to send us photos and even check out our slide show of 100 photos sent in by viewers like you.  Your photo may even make it on the air and into our slide show. 

And just remember, there are lots and lots of outdoor events going on this weekend.  Don't let a little rain spoil your fun!  The rain will be tapering off during the day on Saturday and clearing out of the area by Sunday morning. 

Have a wonderful day and stay safe during the weekend rain! - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

RAIN!

There have been just a couple days of rain lighting up First Alert Doppler over the past few months.  But for the most part, a good soaking rain has remained elusive in southern Arizona.  As of Wednesday, we are 2.86 inches of rainfall below average.  We need the rain.  We want the rain.  And we are going to get the rain.  Here's a break down of what the First Alert Weather Team is forecasting. 

Today started of with some spotty showers and even some moderate downpours at times.  Some areas got hit hard!  At noon, Mt. Lemmon measured almost three quarters of an inch.  This is the first pulse of energy to move through and there is much more to come!

Tonight there will be a lull in the action before the widespread rain arrives Friday afternoon.  Spotty showers are possible but it's the rain that leads us into the weekend that everyone will be talking about.  The rain coverage increases from southwest to northeast late in the day Friday.  The southerly flow we have ahead of an upper level low anchored off the west coast of Mexicao right now is tapping into some great tropical moisture.  Overnight into the morning on Saturday some areas could get an inch of more of rain!  For the most part, it's going to be a light to moderate rain event with a few storms and heavy downpours moving through the area.  The rain will be prolonged, over many hours, which gives the ground a chance to really soak in the moisture.  Not everyone will get the nice soaking rain but it's a safe bet that everyone will at least get something!

The snow will remains limited to the very high peaks of southern Arizona, above 7500 feet. But because there is so much moisture to work with and the main push will be overnight, places like Mt. Lemmon and Hannagan Meadow could get 3 to 6 inches of heavy, wet snow.  Send us your photos!  Just check out our Viewer Views. 

As we head into Saturday afternoon, this storm system moves east.  The rain starts to become more showery, on and off, through the day with a few showers lingering into Sunday morning, mainly in the White Mountains. 

There are a lot of outdoor events scheduled for this weekend.  Don't cancel any of your plans!  Why let a little rain spoil your fun?  Just be prepared with the poncho or rain jacket.  And plenty of parks across the area have buildings or shelters you can duck under during a downpour.  Just remember, if you hear the thunder take cover in a sturdy building or in your car until the storm passes. 

Have a wonderful day and stay safe during the weekend rain! - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

Astronomers using NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory have discovered one of the fastest stars ever seen. It's a "cosmic cannonball" that is challenging theories to explain its blistering speed.

The name of the star is RX J0822-4300. It's a neutron star created by the Puppis A supernova explosion about 3700 years ago. Three Chandra observations clearly show the neutron star moving away from the center of the blast. Speed: 3 million mph! At this rate, RX J0822-4300 is destined to escape the Milky Way just millions of years from now.

Right: Chandra X-ray Observatory images of "cannonball star" RX J0822-4300. [More]

"This neutron star has got a one-way ticket out of the Galaxy," says Robert Petre of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md, one of the study's co-authors. "Astronomers have seen other stars being flung out of the Milky Way, but few as fast as this."

Although the star is moving extremely rapidly, its motion is not easy to see, notes lead author Frank Winkler of Middlebury College in Vermont. "The star is so far away that the motion we see in five years is less than the height of the numerals in the date on a penny held 100 yards away. It's remarkable, and a real testament to the power of Chandra, that such a tiny angle can be measured."

This isn't the first time astronomers have found million-mph stars. So-called "hypervelocity stars" have been previously discovered shooting out of the Milky Way with speeds around one million miles per hour. One key difference between RX J0822-4300 and these other reported galactic escapees is the source of their speed. Hypervelocity stars are thought to have been ejected by interactions with a supermassive black hole in the Galaxy's center, which can act as a sort of "gravitational slingshot." This neutron star, by contrast, was flung into motion by a supernova. Data suggest the explosion was lop-sided, kicking the neutron star in one direction and the debris from the explosion in the other.

Amazing New Photos Of Antarctic Released

High resolution images taken from space were pieced together to form the most comprehensive map of the Antarctic ever created.  NASA took the project on to better study the changing environment of the South Pole.  The above images are taken of the same area. The one on the left is the new, high resolution image. The one on the right, the old image.  You can better see the mountain ranges and the texture of the ice. 

NASA Scientist, Dr. Robert Bindschadler, says "This mosaic of images opens up a window to the Antarctic that we just haven't had before.  It will open new windows of opportunity for scientific research as well as enable the public to become much more familiar with Antarctica and how scientists use imagery in their research. This innovation is like watching high-definition TV in living color versus watching the picture on a grainy black-and-white television. These scenes don't just give us a snapshot, they provide a time-lapse historical record of how Antarctica has changed and will enable us to continue to watch changes unfold."

The image to the right shows glaciers flowing into open water littered with sea ice.  You can even see one of the permanent research stations.  This is also the International Polar Year, when scientists from many nations converge on the Antarctic to study the many natural and ever-changing aspects of this cold continent. 

To learn more about these images check out the NASA Newsroom.

Have a good day! - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

Chanukah!

Hanukkah begins Tuesday at 5:18PM (Sundown).  The weather looks great, with sunset temps in the middle 60s.

Here are the lyrics to "Oh Hanukkah!"

Oh Hanukkah Hanukkah, oh Hanukkah, come light the menorah Let's have a party, we'll all dance the hora Gather round the table, we'll give you a treat Dreidels to play with and latkes to eat And while we are playing The candles are burning low One for each night, they shed a sweet light To remind us of days long ago One for each night, they shed a sweet light To remind us of days long ago

Unusual Saguaros

Dianne White sent in these Viewer Viewers of crested saguaro she stumbled upon while out exploring the desert.  She has seen 5 in 2 weeks!  This is highly unsuaul.  Crested saguaros are very rare to see in nature.  In Saguaro National Park alone, there are only 25 among the thousands of typical saguaros.  And that park is spread out over more than 91,000 acres.

There is still debate among scientists as to what causes these sagauros to grow in a very unsual and dramatic way.  Some theories are insect infestations, genetic mutations, lightning strikes, frost damage or bacterial infections.  There needs to be more research done before a final answer is determined. 

If you see a crested sagauro, send us a photo!  Better yet, send us all your weather and nature photos.  We put the best of the best on the air and in our online slide show. Just check out our Viewer Views for more information. 

Have a great week! - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

Malibu Fire

Over the weekend, Santa Ana winds railed southern California again.

Here's a NASA high resolution image of the fire and smoke.

 

The First Freeze!

And in some cities and towns it was the latest first freeze on record!  Take a look at the data from the National Weather Service in Tucson.  The dates in bold are the new records.  I know the end of the latest occurance is cut-off...sorry about that that!  The list is directly from the NWS and I can not modify it.  But here is the link just in case you are curious about the date of the latest occurance.  NWS Tucson

Have a great post-Thanksgiving week! - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

Freeze dates across southeast Arizona
as of November 25, 2007
Location	Average date	1st time in 2007/08	Earliest 1st occurrence	Latest 1st occurrence
Duncan	Oct. 22	Oct. 22	Oct. 2, 1982	Nov. 20, 2001
Willcox	Oct. 23	Nov. 25	Sep. 21, 1965	Nov. 27, 1914
Canelo	Oct. 24	n/a	Sep. 28, 1936	Nov. 19, 1995
Nogales	Oct. 28	Nov. 25	Oct. 4, 1959	Nov. 24, 2001
San Simon	Oct. 29	Oct. 23	Oct. 10, 1961	Nov. 16, 1988
Benson	Oct. 31	n/a	Oct. 9, 1982	Nov. 21, 1995
Chiricahua N.M.	Oct. 31	Nov. 25	Oct. 8, 1970	Nov. 28, 1995
Bisbee	Nov. 1	Nov. 25	Oct. 10, 1990	Nov. 16, 1988
Safford	Nov. 3	Nov. 25	Oct. 4, 1959	Nov. 24, 2001
Douglas	Nov. 3	Nov. 25	Oct. 19, 1949	Nov. 19, 1995
Pearce-Sunsites	Nov. 3	n/a	Oct. 8, 1970	Nov. 29, 1965
Fort Thomas	Nov. 4	Nov. 25	Oct. 10, 1982	Nov. 20, 1983
Coronado N.M.	Nov. 5	Nov. 25	Oct. 8, 1970	Nov. 29, 1967
Bowie	Nov. 5	Nov. 25	Sep. 29, 1904	Dec. 1, 1927
Kitt Peak	Nov. 6	Nov. 24	Oct. 7, 1970	Nov. 29, 1967
Oracle	Nov. 13	Nov. 25	Oct. 9, 1939	Dec. 24, 1903
Sierra Vista	Nov. 14	Nov. 25	Oct. 5, 2002	Dec. 23, 1900
Tombstone	Nov. 18	Nov. 25	Oct. 18, 1908	Dec. 23, 1900
San Manuel	Nov. 23	n/a	Oct. 28, 1970	Dec. 27, 1962
Tucson	Nov. 24	*	Oct. 16, 1899	Jan. 25, 1978
Clifton	Nov. 25	*	Oct. 31, 1993	Dec. 23, 1910
Organ Pipe	Dec. 4	*	Oct. 31, 1979	Jan. 24, 1978
Ajo	Dec. 25	*	Oct. 31, 1971	Feb. 2, 1956
* - not yet.
n/a - likely occurred by data hasn't been reported to WFO Tucson.

How do you like THESE numbers!?

IT was COLD last night wasn't it? The temperatures on this graphic are Saturday Night's Lows and Sunday Night's / Monday Morning Forecasted Lows. Temperatures are falling below freezing for several hours in places like Bisbee, Douglas, Sierra Vista, Patagonia, Elgin, and on top of Mt. Lemmon. We will see our over night lows come up somewhat over the next few days (Monday - Wednesday) due to clouds that will roll in at night. Clouds act as a blanket for the earth, trapping in some heat, not allowing it all to escape to space. The coldest nights are the ones where the wind is not blowing and the sky is clear! At this point there are no freeze warnings or watches in effect for the area, but we will keep watching and let you know if one is issued.

In the mean-time, it is about that time of year to make sure you have your heater checked, and make sure you have a carbon monoxide detector installed. Just remember not to use heaters that are intended for outdoor use inside! This includes but is not limited to barbecue grills, and propane. Make sure your fireplace is well ventilated as well.

Have a happy and safe week!

-First Alert Meteorologist Aaron Pickering

Hold On To You Stuffing!

I was working Saturday and started thinking about how much of a roller-coaster we have been on. It was HOT on Monday, in fact when the official numbers came down, we broke a record set in 1897! Thats right a record that is 110 years old. Our High that day (Nov 19th) was 17 degrees warmer than our average temperature. I Decided to look at our temperatures over the past nine days, and I built the graphic you see here. Ok, so this is what we are looking at, I took our actual temperature and subtracted the average temperature, this gives us the Departure from "Normal" (in other words, how much warmer/cooler was it from the average). What I found was no surprise. Temperatures for the first part of November though Thanksgiving were WELL above the average, just in the past few days have we seen a major shift. Our Temperatures have actually dropped below average...But look at that drop!In just a five day period we saw a 25 degree shift in our temperatures!

So if Felt cold Saturday, this is why. We will be seeing our temperatures warm again, but I think we will see temperatures near average for the next few days. Then We will have to keep our eyes on an approaching storm system. It is looking like we could see a decent chance of rain Friday, Saturday or Sunday! We really do need the rain...so this would be a welcome sight!

Until then, stay warm!

-First Alert Meteorologist Aaron Pickering