KOLD Climate Community Blog

Very Active Tropics

As of right now there are two tropical storms in both the eastern Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic.  Luckily none of these storms are projected to become major hurricanes and pose no immediate threat to the coasts other than large rainfall totals.  Here is a roundup of the four tropical storms.

In the eastern Pacific there is Tropical Storm Fausto and Tropical Storm Genevieve. T.S. Fausto is located 550 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Fausto is a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 miles per hour (75 mph is a category 1 hurricane). It is projected to weaken as it travels west-northwest into cooler Pacific waters. This morning Fausto reached its peak as a category 2 hurricane yesterday with maximum winds of 100 mph. It quickly weakened during the day and was downgraded to its current tropical storm state. By Wednesday Fausto is to become a tropical depression and quickly move farther into the Pacific Ocean into cooler waters.

Just east of Tropical Storm Fausto is newly developed Tropical Storm Genevieve. She formed today at 2 PM (PDT) as the seventh tropical storm in the eastern Pacific. Genevieve is located 275 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Currently the storm's maximum winds are 40 mph and she is moving west-northwest at 17 mph. Genevieve is traveling over warmer waters and projected to intensify into a hurricane by Thursday, if not sooner. However, T. S. Genevieve will follow along a similar path of Fausto and head out into the Pacific Ocean, threatening no landmasses.

A look into the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico gives us Tropical Storms Dolly and Cristobal. Tropical Storm Dolly is in the Gulf of Mexico located 405 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, TX (US-Mexico border). Right now, Dolly has maximum winds of 50 mph and is moving west-northwest at 16 mph. However, Dolly is moving over warmer waters and is expected to slow down and intensify. The tropical storm is projected to become a hurricane prior to making landfall north of the US-Mexico border. Dolly's landfall depends on how quickly her forward motion slows down. Forecasters predict landfall to occur sometime Wednesday. A hurricane watch is in effect from Rio San Fernando, Mexico northward along the Texas coast to Port O'Connor.

Finally, Tropical Storm Cristobal is located 265 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and moving toward the northeast at 13 mph. Currently, Cristobal's maximum winds are 65 mph making it a strong tropical storm. T.S. Cristobal is projected to weaken tomorrow as it moves into cooler waters. A brief history of Cristobal had it develop as a tropical depression near the coast of South Carolina. It slowly moved up the coast, becoming a tropical storm, bringing rain to the Outer banks of North Carolina.

Dustin Pittman - First Alert Intern

Hurricane Elida

This morning Tropical Storm Elida's maximum sustained winds reached 75 mph making it the second hurricane in the 2008 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.  Hurricane Elida first formed as a tropical storm Saturday when it was located south of Mexico.  Since then Elida has tracked its way northwest to its current position, 475 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.

Elida's 75 mph maximum sustained winds classify it as a weak category 1 hurricane.  75 miles per hour is the lowest wind speed a hurricane can have.  Elida is projected to continue its west-northwest path at 16 mph.  The National Hurricane Center does not project Elida to intensify because it is heading into cooler waters, but it is interesting for us to keep an eye on.  It's path is sending it near the Baja California.  If Elida does get close enough to the Baja some of its moisture could travel up the Gulf of California and influence our monsoon weather.  This action of moisture traveling up the Gulf of California is known as a gulf surge. 

Track Hurricane Elida!  Dustin Pittman - First Alert Intern   

Atlantic's First Hurricane Forms

Hurricane Bertha formed earlier this morning as the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2008 season. Bertha is located 1150 miles southeast of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour making it a category 3 hurricane. Bertha is moving north-northwest at 12 mph and poses no threat to the American coastlines. Forecast tracks predict a weakened Bertha heading toward the island of Bermuda. However, it is way too soon to tell how close to Bermuda Bertha will get, but it should be near the island on Saturday.  Click here to keep up to date with Hurricane Bertha and its track.  Dustin Pittman - First Alert Intern

Start of Hurricane Season 2008

Here in Tucson we are gearing up for the start of the monsoon, but the citizens of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal areas are preparing for the hurricane season.  According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2008 hurricane season begins June 1^st. 

This year’s hurricane season is predicted to be above normal.  The Climate Prediction Center has stated that there is a 65% chance of an above normal season.  Forecasters’ predictions are based on the current weather patterns in the Atlantic and a look into when these conditions were present in the past.  By examining past seasons, they have predicted 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).  A normal season consists of 11 named storms, 6 of these storms reaching hurricane strength (winds reaching 74 mph). 

Here is a graphic of the expected conditions during the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.  The area shaded in red is predicted to have reduced wind shear which allows hurricanes to last longer and have greater intensity.  The area of lower surface pressure favors hurricane development because a hurricane is an area of lower pressure so the lower the surface pressure, thus making it easier for a hurricane to develop.  The pink area predicts higher pressure in the upper atmosphere which will act as a blocking force to storms coming off of the western coast of Africa.  This results in storms being pushed farther south into the favorable African easterly jet which further pushes the developing storms westward across the Atlantic Ocean.  In addition to the African easterly jet, forecasters predict weaker Easterly Trade Winds.  This condition enhances a hurricane’s develop by not breaking up the rotation of the storm in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Upper-level Easterlies that expand westward will only enhance the effect of the African Easterly Jet in directing the hurricane westward.  Finally, above normal sea surface temperatures over the past decade favor the development of a hurricane and enhance its strength as it travels westward.   

If you would like to read more about the 2008 hurricane season click here!

First Alert Intern

Dustin Pittman

 

Historic Hurricane Felix

Hurricane Felix made landfall around 5am MST Tuesday along the Nicaragua and Honduras border.  It was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds.  This is the first time in history of hurricane record keeping (since 1886) that two Category 5 storms have made landfall in the same season.  In mid-August, Category 5 Hurricane Dean made landfall along the southern Yucatan coastline.  Only 31 Category 5 storms have been recorded in the Atlantic Ocean basin.  Eight of these have been in the past 5 years.

The storm moved onshore in a swampy, sparsely populated area of Nicaragua.  The Miskito Indians live in this area in huts and transportation is mainly by canoe.  Local newspapers in Nicaragua report that many Miskito Indians did not evacuate and that 20 fishermen were missing on Tuesday morning.  This Category 5 storm likely destroyed much of that area. 

As Felix weakens while moving over Central America, it will dump quite a few inches of rain in it's path. That's bad news for this mountainous area.  Flash floods and landslides are likely.  In 1998 Hurricane Mitch moved onshore in Honduras as a category 5 storm.  Confirmed deaths reached over 5600, while over 8000 people were reported missing.  It was a catastrophic event. 

Hopefully lessons learned from Mitch, will keep many safe from the effects of Felix.  This storm will not affect our area but it is a major hurricane that has a lot of people talking!

First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Henriette is just south of Cabo San Lucas on this Labor Day. The image to the left is the 5 AM PDT update for the possible track of the storm.  And as you can see...the remnants are heading for southern Arizona. 

Henriette is not forecasted to become a powerful tropical cyclone but it could become a hurricane as it skirts towards the Baja Peninsula.  Cabo and many towns along the peninsula are low-lying.  So even though they may not be destroyed by powerful winds, the high surf could cause some major damage. 

By Wednesday night or early Thursday morning the storm is expected to enter into Sonora, Mexico.  Then it will likely head north towards southern Arizona.  Now...the thing with tropical systems is that they can be very temperamental.  Although we will likely see some affect from Henriette, the forecast for rain is not 100% just yet.  Sometimes we can just get the cloud cover, which in turn helps stabilize our atmosphere, and squashes storm chances. Or we could see the direct affects from the weakened circulation.  That means flooding rains are possible.  All of us First Alert Meteorologists are monitoring this storm hour by hour, day by day.  The way I look at it...hope for the best, prepare for the worst.  If the worst does happen, it looks like Thursday could be a very wet day!

Now onto Felix!  This is the one everyone else is talking about.  It's currently a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds.  For Monday there really isn't much in it's path. There are a few small islands with low populations. Still, as this hurricane passes by or over those islands, many of the structures will be destroyed.  On Tuesday morning the storm will either skirt the coast of Honduras or make landfall near the Honduras and Nicaragua border.  The last category 5 hurricane to hit Hondurans was in 1998.  This mountainous country experienced massive losses because of flooding and landslides.  5600 people were confirmed dead with over 8000 missing.  It was truly catastrophic for this country of only 6.2 million people at the time. 

To get the latest tracks and updates on the strength of these two storms check out the National Hurricane Center. 

Have a relaxing Labor Day! - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan